Activism anxiety will grip French establishment

BY ROB COX

France knows a thing or two about meddling investors. The government regularly sticks its nose in private industry’s affairs. Moguls like Vincent Bolloré have long thrown their weight around public boardrooms at home and abroad. But few large French companies have undergone the cage rattling that regularly rocks their American cousins. Pernod Ricard, the booze group, got a taste of that when Elliott Advisors turned up with a 2.5 percent stake on Dec. 12. More is coming.

Executives of enterprises included in the benchmark CAC-40 index can partly blame President Emmanuel Macron for their rising activism anxiety. As economy minister in 2015, the former Rothschild banker ordered a stealth stake increase in carmaker Renault to double the state’s voting rights. That not only legitimised hedge-fund style manoeuvres in Parisian capital markets. It also set the stage for the current standoff with Nissan, in which Renault owns a large stake.

Similarly, attempts to take control of Telecom Italia by Vivendi not only backfired in 2018, they signalled vulnerability up the chain of command. Bolloré owns 25 percent of the media conglomerate, which may be worth about 30 percent less than the sum of its parts. A breakup could unlock that discount.

Investors could also gain by lobbying Renault to sell its 43 percent stake in Nissan. The shareholding is worth $16 billion, almost as much as Renault’s total market cap of $20 billion. The arrest of Chairman and Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn in Tokyo exposed a disparity in governance between the two partners. Should that lead to a rupture in the automakers’ alliance, investors will pressure Renault to release money tied up in Nissan.

Then there’s Danone. The 44 billion-euro yogurt juggernaut has no controlling shareholder and has underperformed rivals Unilever and PepsiCo, its one-time predator, for five years running. Or Saint-Gobain, whose shares have trailed those of Asahi Glass over the past half-decade. In late November the 18 billion-euro building materials group rushed out a plan to accelerate asset sales and cost savings — a telltale sign of boardroom agitation.

In the past, the French establishment has closed ranks to protect domestic champions from unwanted foreign intruders. Yet whether it’s in glass, cars, music or dairy, corporate France needs to brace for an activism unlike its home-grown variety.

First published Dec. 12, 2018.